Process: How to forecast and report the demand for teachers at school level
At the end of each school year, school leaders must estimate the need for teachers at their schools for the next school year and for the following five years. The exercise applies many of the same criteria as national workforce forecasting (see below).
At school level it is a matter of simply counting: Who is expected to retire and when? Who will be promoted to a higher position and when? What is the expected increase or decrease in pupil population? How often on average (based on experience from previous years) will a teacher transfer to another school or leave the service? Etc.
The school leader must supply information on recruitment needs at their school to their TSC-DO by using a regular calculation based on the below criteria. The TSC-DO will aggregate the results at district level and submit it to TSC-HQ, which will then use information from all districts to forecast the need for recruiting teachers on a national scale.
To forecast school workforce demand, school leaders should apply the following criteria:
- Increase or decrease in the estimated number of pupils
- Teacher-pupil ratio
- Total population of required teachers based on teacher-pupil ratio
- Need for teachers with subject specialization for specializations in secondary schools
- Teachers who are expected to retire
- School leaders who are expected to retire or be promoted to the civil service, TSC, etc.
- Teachers who are expected to be promoted to school leader positions
- Estimation of teachers who will transfer to other schools (based on the trend from previous years).
- Estimation of teachers expected to separate from the service (based on the trend from previous years).
NOTE: THE FINAL MODEL FOR SCHOOL-LEVEL FORECASTING IS UNDER DEVELOPMENT